Strategy
TRACK RECORD OF OUR QUANTITATIVE MODEL
Below is the track record of the quantitative model run quarterly to
re-balance the Crabtree Technology portfolio of equities. The data
series runs from 2009 when Crabtree Asset Management was founded until
the end of 2023. Note: these are only the hypothetical returns expected
if the equities chosen made up an equal-weighted portfolio over the time
periods shown. These are not the actual returns of any portfolio. Past
performance of our quantitative model is not indicative or predictive of
past or present actual returns.
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Hypothetical Cumulative Return: |
| Crabtree Tech Model Hypothetical Annual Returns |
54.35% | 25.25% | -5.64% | 11.24% | 49.86% | 15.19% | -1.24% | 19.07% | 22.86% | -12.43% | 31.72% | 13.53% | 27.24% | -12.30% | 24.88% | 823.80% |
In short, our confidence in the effectiveness of our quantitative process is grounded by the knowledge that our model was “forward-tested;” i.e., models were created, and allowed to “run” for three- and six-month periods, and the performance checked after-the-fact. Along with eliminating survivor bias, such “forward-testing” prevents the inadvertent creation of fragile, tightly-defined portfolios which may outperform over some or even many periods, but which are susceptible to violently negative periods of return, owing to a dependence on easily manipulated parameters, such as those based on accrual accounting.